To the experts, economists and other idiot scholars who inexplicably failed to see this storm coming, thanks for nothing. All of their acronyms, PhDs, fancy modeling and algorithms have proved useless: Britain and the world are plunging into the most terrifying economic, political and cultural crisis of the past 40 years. A bunch of intelligent … Read more
The conclusion is that either a bout of very high interest rates or a recession can cause house prices to fall. But the combination of high interest rates and a weak economy is particularly deadly for the housing market, especially if the latter is accompanied by a very weak labor market. We need to hear … Read more
As the numbers sank in, sterling fell to a fresh two-year low, before recovering slightly on Friday. But the risk of UK stagflation – the ghastly combination of soaring inflation and economic stagnation, last seen in the 1970s – now looms large. That’s why some traders predict the first sustained drop in sterling below $1.20 … Read more
Yes, yes, there are the supply chain issues associated with the pandemic, and now there is a war to add to energy and food price woes. But sad to say, complacent central bankers – including the Bank of England – are right up there in the mix. The fault lies in a monumental and decades-long … Read more
Read deserves sympathy, however. The problems are fundamental and can be traced back to Vodafone’s buccaneering, flag-planting days of the 1990s and early 2000s as it sought to build a global mobile empire. That was the wrong idea. Instead Vodafone should have been building on its existing markets by adding broadband to mobile services. Its … Read more
Shenzhen first started locking down in January. By March, Shanghai had gone into a total lockdown, with travel into and out of the city severely restricted, a strict quarantine regime, mass testing, and the closure of offices, schools and factories. Beijing has already started mass testing alongside selective lockdowns, and it would hardly be a … Read more
Hitler took 35 days to conquer Poland. It has already taken Vladimir Putin more than twice as long not to conquer Ukraine. Actually, he has done worse: he started trying eight years ago when he annexed Crimea, and still hasn’t managed it. Even Putin’s Belarus puppet, Alexander Lukashenko, publicly noticed this week that the war … Read more
Back in February, when Vladimir Putin launched his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, I ventured the opinion that the conflict would ultimately prove as damaging to the Russian leader as the Soviet Union’s ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. With the war now well into its third month, it is clear that Mr Putin’s Ukrainian … Read more
I used to think, in the years before Brexit, that what might conceivably bring the quarrelsome nations of the EU together in genuine unity would be a grave external threat. The most dramatic I could imagine (however unlikely) was a Russian invasion. And then, with luck, might come the fulfillment of the “European ideal” – … Read more
The West has been experiencing a crisis of confidence. Europe’s response to the Russian assault on Ukraine has been fragmented and lackluster. America and its allies continue to bury their heads in the sand over the consequences of China’s rise. This weakness of will on the global stage is matched by a wobbling faith in … Read more